Fivethirtyeight app

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Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.One problem: Multiple precinct chairs reported hours-long wait timesand even getting cut off, when they tried to use that hotline. Even before the caucuses began, some precinct chairs reported difficulty with the app, including trouble downloading it. Additionally, one county chairman told The New York Times that seven of the 10 volunteers running precincts in his district never downloaded the app at all and always planned to call in the results.

These problems demonstrate one of the first big mistakes the party made when introducing new tech to an already arcane process: not considering its user base. Compounding the issue, many of these events also take place in rural areas where cell phone reception is less reliable. The evidence suggests those kinds of tests were not done. But in a way, the party already piloted using an app back in Both the Republican and Democratic parties in Iowa introduced apps built by Microsoft to report results during the caucuses in Kaleigh Rogers is a reporter covering politics and technology.

Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.We went back to the drawing board and drew a set of alternative congressional maps for the entire country. Each map has a different goal: One is designed to encourage competitive elections, for example, and another to maximize the number of majority-minority districts.

fivethirtyeight app

See how changes to district boundaries could radically alter the partisan and racial makeup of the U. House — without a single voter moving or switching parties. The partisan breakdown of districts and the expected number of seats controlled by Democrats and Republicans, based on their long-term likelihood of winning each district.

The expected number of seats controlled by Democrats and Republicans, based on their long-term likelihood of winning each district. How the maps compare on district competitiveness, minority makeup, respect for local borders, compactness and the efficiency gapan attempt to gauge how politically gerrymandered a set of districts is. The number of districts by majority racial or ethnic group and the projected number of nonwhite representatives, based on election results since All demographic data is from the census.

Its creator, Dave Bradlee, modified the app to make this project possible. The seventh map comes from software engineer Brian Olson, who wrote an algorithm to draw districts with a minimum average distance between each constituent and his or her district's geographic center. Read more about how we drew and analyzed these maps in our methodology. Get the data on GitHub.

Statistical models by Nate Silver. Census BureauBrian Olson. Show current district boundaries. Gerrymander districts to favor Republicans.

Gerrymander districts to favor Democrats. Match partisan breakdown of seats to electorate. Promote highly competitive elections. Maximize number of majority-minority districts. Make district shapes compact using an algorithm.

Make districts compact while following county borders. Show current district boundaries Gerrymander districts to favor Republicans Gerrymander districts to favor Democrats Match partisan breakdown of seats to electorate Promote highly competitive elections Maximize number of majority-minority districts Make district shapes compact using an algorithm Make districts compact while following county borders. Usually Democratic districts Highly competitive districts Usually Republican districts.

The partisan breakdown of districts and the expected number of seats controlled by Democrats and Republicans, based on their long-term likelihood of winning each district The expected number of seats controlled by Democrats and Republicans, based on their long-term likelihood of winning each district Expected seat split Map Usually Dem. GOP Democratic gerrymander. How the maps compare on district competitiveness, minority makeup, respect for local borders, compactness and the efficiency gapan attempt to gauge how politically gerrymandered a set of districts is Efficiency gap.

Number of districts in which both parties have at least a 1-in-6 chance of winning. Majority-nonwhite districts. Number of districts in which a majority of the voting-age population is nonwhite.

Number of times a map divides counties into different congressional districts.GitHub is home to over 40 million developers working together to host and review code, manage projects, and build software together.

If nothing happens, download GitHub Desktop and try again. If nothing happens, download Xcode and try again. If nothing happens, download the GitHub extension for Visual Studio and try again. Starting this app once will register a Background-Process polling fivethirtyeight.

If you don't want to build the project from source, i have included a prebuilt package you can use to sideload the app. Heres how to do it, taken from Microsoft :. All Live-Tile sizes small, medium, wide, large are supported and will show the overall confidence scores for the candidates. You can choose between fivethirtyeights cartoon heads and actual photos of the candidates to be displayed on the medium sized tile.

The large tile will also display the predicted Electoral Votes and Popular Vote. Skip to content. Dismiss Join GitHub today GitHub is home to over 40 million developers working together to host and review code, manage projects, and build software together.

Sign up. PowerShell C. PowerShell Branch: master. Find file. Sign in Sign up. Go back. Launching Xcode If nothing happens, download Xcode and try again.

Latest commit Fetching latest commit…. Installation If you don't want to build the project from source, i have included a prebuilt package you can use to sideload the app. Live-Tile All Live-Tile sizes small, medium, wide, large are supported and will show the overall confidence scores for the candidates. When the numbers change, a trend will also be displayed. Notifications You can choose to receive a notification when the numbers change. You signed in with another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.

You signed out in another tab or window.Carl Voss, Des Moines City Councilman and a precinct chair, shows photographers the app that was used for caucus results reporting on his phone. And they said they hope the lesson sticks. The software was the handiwork of Shadow Inc. On Tuesday, the company expressed "regret" about the confusion without disclosing what went wrong. The state party has said it consulted with cyber experts at the Department of Homeland Security, Harvard University and elsewhere about how to safely report the results, according to a party official who had insisted on being anonymous.

And the Republican Party used an app from a different company — which it would not identify — on Monday night, with no apparent distress. Those reports stunned the cyber experts, who said they bore all the signs of a rush to deploy inadequately tested software without fully training the users.

Technology Policy Committee. Has anybody from the testing been quoted by the press, even? If not, it doesn't mean much. None of the experts said they had seen any evidence that a cyberattack was to blame for the failures of the app or the telephone hotline. Neither did DHS, which said in a statement that "we have no reporting of any malicious cyber activity. Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, echoed that warning in a statement.

Several of the experts were optimistic that Monday could put the kibosh on any stabs at allowing people to cast actual votes through apps or online. They noted that at least in Iowa, the in-person caucus process should leave a paper record of how people voted — a safeguard that would be lacking in an online vote in a traditional primary.

But it scrapped those plans last year amid warnings about security risks. Alex Halderman, a computer science professor at the University of Michigan who has tested many voting systems.

Skip to Main Content. Where did the app come from? Acronym declined to comment Tuesday.

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Are there any positive lessons to draw from this debacle?Your Library Podcasts News. FiveThirtyEight Politics Follow. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

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Each week, these BFFs will discuss an episode of Scrubs, sharing behind-the-scenes stories and reminiscing on some of their favorite memories from filming.Polls conducted after June 28,the date this page was published, are listed by the date that FiveThirtyEight collected them; polls conducted before then are listed under the last date that the poll was in the field.

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